How Varsity One Rating works

Varsity One Rating is a power rating on a 0–100 scale. Think of 50 as a typical Ohio varsity baseline. Teams well above 50 are stronger than average; teams well below are still sorting out. Statewide, division, and region ranks all sort the same rating — they are not separate polls.

A 6–0 team that beat soft opponents is not the same as a 6–0 team that survived a gauntlet. The rating rewards who you beat, how you beat them (with limits), and how tough the schedule has been — not just the W column.

Strength of schedule asks whether a team has faced quality competition. Beating good teams moves the needle more than padding the record against weak ones. A modest look at opponents’ opponents keeps the view honest without overcomplicating it.

Wins over the state’s stronger programs earn extra credit — especially against the very top tier. A quality win is not the same as any win; context matters.

Blowouts help, but less and less as the margin grows. Running it up does not count like five competitive victories. That keeps the board from rewarding scoreboard aesthetics over real strength.

Before enough games are played, every team gets a preseason starting point from last year’s strength, recent program history, outside preseason rankings when available, and talent signals when available. Thin coverage lowers confidence — it does not invent fake talent.

Recruiting and returning-experience signals can influence the preseason prior when we actually have them. When we don’t, the confidence system keeps those pieces near neutral so missing player data cannot dominate the board.

Incomplete information is expected in high school football. The model does not punish a team for lacking a recruiting write-up. Instead, low-confidence pieces slide toward the statewide average until better evidence arrives.

After Week 1 the prior is 65% of the rating, then 45%, 25%, and 10%. From Week 5 on, preseason weight is exactly zero. Outside rankings and talent fade with the prior — they do not linger all year.

Once five weeks of games are in the books, the rating is entirely about what has happened this season: opponent-adjusted performance, schedule, quality wins, scoring, results, and recent form.

Before freeze, the rating methodology (v1.0) was tested on the full 2025 season. Backtested across 3,000+ next-week 2025 matchups, the higher-rated team won 78.5% of the time. The full model also improved early-season next-week prediction versus a results-only baseline (about +1.4 percentage points in Weeks 2–5) and matched results-only after the prior faded — as designed. Past performance is validation evidence, not a guarantee of future accuracy.